Random Politics & Religion #38: The 38th One

Wow, and here comes Chanti with the reality check.

Not much of one. You still have not provided any legitimate reasoning to believe that the Dems will have a turnout problem in 2020, when they just broke records in 2018. Nothing is going to keep people from voting against Trump. The fact that all facets of his agenda are failing is just a bonus.

Voter turnout is in constant flux, genius. You can't seem to process the complexities of the political landscape so you boil it down to "cuz Trump durr lol". Just as you did in 2016, you're throwing the blinders on, ignoring all of the red flags on your own side, and projecting your one-topic mindset on everyone else. Even Shi and Chanti seem to acknowledge it, so I don't know why you can't figure it out.

lol, there is nothing you are saying that can't be "processed." You are hoping and dreaming that somehow, all the people that turned out 7 months ago to vote Trump down are going to stay home because they would rather see Trump for 4 more awful years than vote for a Democrat that is completely opposed to everything he stands for, and MAYBE a few things they stand for. That's your platform right now. And its hilarious.

I don't need to dream that the 2018 voters will stay home, because the 2018 election still had a lower turnout than 2016. And despite this massive turnout you keep touting, the Democrat gains fell far short of historic.

Need I remind you that the 2018 midterms had a nearly 10% higher turnout rate than 2010, but 2010 was far more disastrous for the party in power? Turnout rates were higher for both sides in 2018. I know you like to believe that you have all the momentum and could elect a paper bag with a donkey printed on it, but "I'm not Trump" wasn't good enough then and it's definitely not good enough now.

It sure seems like "Im not Trump" worked perfectly fine just 7 months ago, and given all the polls that Trump is working hard (and failing) to deny, it sure seems like "Im not Trump" is working great right now. Unless you would like to provide any kind of evidence its not?

How did that polls work in 2016?

Oh hey, its that attempt again.

I'm not an expert in political science, but I study the polls (including underlying questions), I look at trends, and I make predictions each election cycle that have come pretty dang close to the actual results even when the pollsters themselves are off.

Vic sees the results of one midterm (which almost always work against the incumbent even though most incumbents proceed to get reelected anyway), sees polls that are over a year out from election day, watches CNN to see what their opinions are, and thinks he's got it all figured out well in advance.

It doesn't matter what I say. It's like trying to explain to a six-year-old why they're wrong. They have a certain basic logic in their head that makes sense to only them and you can't correct it because any rational explanation goes completely over their head.

This feels like a Saevel post when you spout a bunch of *** but in the end you are forced to say say: No, I have no evidence to support the idea that anybody but Trump is not working right now, despite claiming it in my most recent post.

And what do you have, Vic? Midterm results and irrelevant polls? Wow, what a master of insight you are.

Who says they are irrelevant? You? And that is supposed to hold any weight? It doesn't.

So I have midterm results and current polling/trends/results, that include Trump pollsters that he is financing, and you have absolutely nothing. You have presented nothing, your "past accomplishments" mean nothing.

The thing people need to stop and remember is who answers random telephone calls about political opinions? Trump supporters don't, their too much working or spending time with family to do anything other then hangup after the first few words out of the "volunteers" mouth. Those same supporters are the ones who normally don't vote because why bother, neither side really cares about them, that is until Donald Trump showed up. Everything Donald Trump has done has been aimed at the silent majority of Americans who wake up, work at a middle class job then come home to their families at night. They don't care about progressive causes and if anything are actively afraid of the impact crazy leftist ideas will have on them. They don't care about religion or social issues either, for them it's a case of "if I doesn't get in my way then I don't care" attitude.

That is who got Donald Trump elected, not crazy racists or sexists (those vote Democrat anyway) but regular moderate middle American families. If anything that is what the 2016 results shows, the guys that nobody ever expects to show up actually showed up and completely ruined the Democrats election plans.

Now we need to ask ourselves, ~what~ have the Democrats done since 2016 to address those moderate middle class family voters? They don't live in the coastal cities, they really don't care about "ism's", political causes or diversity and actively dislike political correctness. What have the Democrats done for the majority of Americans who just want to live their lives free from bothers and interference?

You have numbers that you've glanced at. That's it. I have education in polling practices and the underlying statistical methods that determines how they're designed and blocked, as well as education in the inherent difficulties and flaws in question design and response biases. I also have invested a lot more time than you in studying historical polling trends.

I don't like tooting my own horn, but the point I'm trying to make is that you arguing with me about this is like me arguing with you about baseball. Yeah, I know how the game is played and I can make basic judgments about a team based on win records, RBIs, ERAs, etc., but I can't hold a candle to someone who knows all of that AND watches religiously, because you'll notice things that I can't figure out just by glancing at a basic stat sheet.

We could ask for a source for this, but who are we kidding, he made it up.

Well why don't you put that education to good use and give us an analysis of all the recent polls that have come out? Instead of screaming they are fake or trying unsuccessfully to point to 2016, talk about the actual, current events.

The main problem with that is that there simply aren't a lot of reliable polls out there on the topic yet. I have never put my trust in the results of any one polling outfit, and it takes many polls over a period of time to truly get a sense for trends (hence why I use Realclearpolitics.com). If you really want to make me work for it, fine, but the results are going to bounce around a whole lot before we ever get to the stuff that can reliably predict an election.

Also, I should note that old data is not meaningless. The 2016 election is a more apples-to-apples comparison to what can happen in 2020 than pre-debate, pre-primary head-to-head polling is going to give us. That being said, the two majors mistakes that most people make is that they put too much faith in single snapshots or they disregard polling numbers entirely when it doesn't agree with them. Is it a convoluted mess full of bias? Unfortunately, yes. Learning how to use the information anyway is where the true art is, and you can only see the full picture if you take in all of the information that is available (both past and present).

Forgive me but Biden has no chance.

Zero. Zip. Nada. The only people who would overlook his disgraced immoral dirty handsy grandpa demeanor are people who live on a daily ration of “orange man bad” everyday.

His record is terrible, he’s campaigning against problems he himself was instrumental in creating for his own personal gain. He would be a gift from god if he pulled it off.

Well more than 12 million. Many are illegally registered to vote. Any idea that “they dont, it’s impossible” is absolutely ridiculous on its face.

lol, and nausi returns with his unsourced nonsense.

Well more than 12 million. Many are illegally registered to vote. Any idea that “they dont, it’s impossible” is absolutely ridiculous on its face.Dems have fallen victim to their bubble. They think the fake bots on twitter shouting “orange man bad” represent the rest of the country when in fact they are a tiny minority capable of projecting their voice much higher than the rest of us (for obvious fascio-corporate reasons.

Reminder:

Trump has a much higher approval rating today than he did the day he was elected. This election is already over for the left, they just don’t know it.

Vuc’s impotent tantrum never runs out of gas. Still firing blanks.

Hahahahah wow!

LOL, source?

Also, notice how much better the thread was when nausi wasn't spamming idiocy? I mean, it's great for laughs, not so much for topics.

Wow, you can almost taste Vuc’s butthurt.

He has no sources, spews garbage and simply declares victory when he refuses to look at all reasoned arguments.

Could he get anymore desperate? We’Re gonna find out for sure in the next 500 days.

It's more accurate to say that he has higher favorability ratings than the day he was elected (approval doesn't start until after you take office). He also has higher favorability ratings than the day he was inaugurated. His favorability as of today is at a two-year high. It's relatively stable overall with a slight upward trend.

Source

I dont know why you bother, Vuc is just going to say your source is just some conspiracy theorist on the scale of alex jones, and that because he doesn’t want to believe it, it is therefore not a good argument.

Its a varied take on the characitured “god of the gaps” argument, is ultimately a dishonest, and should be treated as the joke it is.

Just do us a favor and video tape yourself on election night so we can have another video like TYT and Rachel Maddow, who also took these polls as facts. At least they would admit that polls, this early, are pretty irrelevant in terms of final election results. These polls are here to give campaigns an idea on what voters find important. Democrats will look to polling to help figure out who to rig their primaries for again. Campaigns will be adjusting as the election gets closer, and these poll results will be changing based on the success/failures of the strategies that the different campaigns take.

it's easy when I'm going up against an idiot that's always wrong. like I said, we had a topic going, then nausi started trolling with his unsourced lies. I like the "election is over folks" whopper. Not even Saevel could bring himself to plus that one, and he has incredibly low standards.