The A.M.A.N. Trove BC

Mars 117 Orbs
Belligerant Bang: 9 (7.7%)
Reynbow: 1 (0.85%)
Terminal LT: 1 (out of 35 Terminal Chests opened so 2.9%)

Venus 93 Orbs
Belligerant Bang: 12 (12.9%)
Rainbow: 3 (3.23%)
Terminal LT: 5 (out of 42 so 11.9%)

Looking at this data, it almost feel as if, if we disregard the 9th chest turning either gold or rainbow as your reward for choosing the correct 8th chest, that Venus have 4 times the chance of a Loud Thud in general.

I'm not quite sure how you conclude that; it's well established that venus cannot have noise as the terminal coffer's drop. Interpreting the rate of loud thud in terminal coffer to also be the rate of loud thud in plain brown coffers is completely unfounded and makes no sense given we know noises can occur in brown chests on venus. The sample size is also small; though I have no reason to doubt that difference in the terminal coffer itself.

I was looking at the Rainbow Chest rate actually

Like if Rainbow Chest chance is

Mars.LT.Chance x Rainbow Chance = 0.85%
Venus.LT.Chance x Rainbow Chance = 3.2%

if Rainbow Chances are the same, then 3.2/0.85 = 3.75:1 Venus.LT.Chance : Mars.LT.Chance

Obviously small sample size/luck still applies. My only Crep Cloak came from a monthly free Mars Orb.

That is also operating under the assumption that rainbow chest appearing is premised on a chest being predecided as loud thud then a second roll occuring to determine the rainbow reveal. Throw in the sample size of 1/3, and it's very flimsy, but it does make more sense when you look at it that way.

If anyone cares, 5 thuds is indeed possible. Technically, I got a 6th thud from the gold/exit chest, too. Drops are shown in second screenshot because I couldn't get everything into one screenshot:

Oh well.

In my last run with Mars Orb I got 5 Thuds, 3 Noises and 2 Loud Thuds. (no bangs)
Loud Thuds were chest 9 which went Rainbow and the centre chest.
Main drop was Orpheus's Sash.

This is really interesting to me. Along with Moonja's post about where he got 3 LT's, what's the maximum number of LTs possible?

1.) If you get an LT between chest 1-8,
2.) Chest 9 becomes gold (thud) or rainbow (loud thud)
3.) The terminal coffer can be noise, thud or loud thud.

That's it right? Unfortunately for me, I always exit after an LT between chests 1-8. Of course, you can always have what just happened to me a few minutes ago, where Chest #1 and Terminal both gave Loud Thud:

I had 3 loud thuds going into the 8th chest which was a mimic. The greed got to me.

i always stop after i get a loud thud, and i walk away proudly with my vexed cuffs.

If I had to totally speculate:

When you first enter the zone for the first 8 regular chests, each one you open is a unique dice roll of something like, 10% chance loud thud, 15% chance mimic, 15% thud, 60% noise (or whatever ratios they decided)

After you open the 8th chest. A switch flips and it changes the last two chests into a 100% chance one is a mimic and 100% chance the other is a gold or rainbow (seems heavily weighted toward rainbow).

Center chest is always anything but a mimic.

So imo it's possible to get 10 loud thuds and exit (9 plus the center) though probably astronomically small odds of it happening and balls of steel to keep opening chests.

I really think the mimic is placed and not rolled. It doesn't really belong in the same roll as loot and the thought of any chest being possible mimic doesn't make sense to me.


The idea of the game is that your odds of survival decrease with each chest you open. Static odds don't fit.

Ive been following the strat of opening at most 4 chests. If i have belligerant, i keep going, otherwise its terminal chest.

Im quite satisfied with that, mostly because i think regular noise is quite nice, job cards and legshards all of them can have some uses.

Actually one orb can net more card than a regular omen card farming, without the job restriction so im pretty satisfied with either loud thud or regular noise.

Not to mention i already got more gil rewards than the entire past month.

By this logic, im also moving from venus to mars orb now

Damn, it just gonna take forever lol

It's rainbow or bust for me, so a lot of NQ vexed gear that sells for 10k.

You're playing a numbers game regardless. Need a lot of numbers to get that one good drop. If you're happy with lots of low/medium drops or gil items great, otherwise rare drops are rare drops.

I'd say if opening 4-5 chests Venus makes more sense than mars. Venus could give you loud thud on terminal and if you don't go for rainbow you open a lot more terminal chests.

One thing i do think is, as i found thud pool consist of random 119 gear that we can get like in 15~30 mins of content, i would say thud is my less wanted. I would prefer like 8 normal noise than 8 thuds at this point.

Unless there is something unique and worthwhile in the thud pool im not considering.

Is there any sellable in the thud category?

Could it be possible that the increase in Thuds->Shards in June be related to the Dynamis Statue Crusher campaign, potentially?

It's plausible that existing campaigns, when enabled, increases the occurrence of certain drops from AMAN. My anectdoral experience has been, about 200 orbs in June and I've got more dyna shards from Trove than I've ever gotten before, in any previous month. I'm basically, just asking for your experience, as supplemental data points.

You're saying it's possible the 0-man dev team who barely have time to change the ambuscade out each month are putting in hidden AMAN trove campaigns to highlight specific drops for that month and not telling anyone about it?

Why would a corporation pay someone to do development work for a campaign and not tell anyone about it? Do they think it's going to increase subscriptions or retention of subscriptions to arbitrarily and stealthily increase/decrease the drop rates of items in a random event?

"Hey Johnson, can you show us some data about the increase in engagement with AMAN trove since you introduced your code?"
"Boss, we didn't tell any of the players about this, how am I supposed to show that people are thrilled to have more dynamis shards? They didn't rush off to do more AMAN trove because we never told them it was a thing. You're being ridiculous"

Small sample from mars

Attempts 111
LTTerminal 1
LTCourse 10
Belligerant 8
Cash 1

While im still satisfied with large amount of cards my new char is receiving, swapping to venus only because i had lots of vouchers from past campaign and this is taking considerably long. And update is nearing fast

Also, considering the odds of hitting the 8th chest, i guess you can more than double the quality reward by striving for gold. At cost of less secondary rewards (shards, cards, good priced mats,etc).

Decisions!

BTW.. SE need to make those juices stackable!

Imagine enabling and disabling campaigns is just a few settings. AMAN item tables are probably just a single SQL query to from Normal to Campaign-related drops.

It's far from "development work" and more just routine operations and build configuration management.

Introducing the A.M.A.N. Trove Copium Campaign!

During this campaign, players openly accuse SE of tampering with drop rates to deal with the shame of failing to overwhelm Trove with their wallets.

I don't see why a campaign would need to be involved, but I could certainly believe the rates are adjusted from month to month. Trove, flotsam, and the gobbie box serve as extra sources of many items that are from abandoned content. It would be perfectly logical to adjust the ratios occasionally to help ensure those items remain available.

There's nothing stopping them doing a 1/n roll for mimic each time you open a chest, then doing a secondary roll for noise/thud/loud thud afterwards. This would be indistinguishable from predetermined, but make it easier for them to ensure they didn't do anything stupid to reveal the chest. Thus, the question as users isn't really whether it's a roll at time of entrance or time of open, but whether it's a fixed probability per chest vs shifting odds (and I think it's pretty easy to conclude it's shifting odds, you wouldn't need a very large sample of chest 7/8 to be sure).

Imagine you're dealing a game of 3 card Monte. I walk up and lay down a bet, you deal and I pick the wrong card. Well... those are my odds against a master of slight and misdirection. You're not walking away with my money just yet. Though I technically lost, the game ends when you reveal the 'money card' to show that you won. Blackjack, Poker, ect. always show the result.


The final chest always rolls mimic so it's redundant to calculate every time a chest is selected. Even if you could identify the mimic at the start and open 9 chests every orb, you're still up against the odds of each chest rolling LT and subsequently; the odds of that LT being junk you didn't want/need anyway.

The odds are built into the game so if they wanted to tweak that, they would adjust the total number of boxes or expand(or possibly add) a loot tier like they did with their update last year.