Su5 JSE Odds (Escutcheon, Orvail Ring, Etc)

Just wondering if anyone has the numbers for the odds of hq 3 Su5 weapons like the Rostam? Want to make a signed one but wanna estimate how many mats I should get before trying. This applies to all Su5 weapons as well so even if you aren't smithing, I'm curious to see on avg how many synths it takes before you get what you want. Thanks

Maybe one. Maybe 50.

Predicting synthesis needs? Last week I broke 6 in a row, 2 critical, on a level 4 synth.

I'm level 127 with MH, gear, and npc synthesis+.

Crafting is insane and unpredictable.

Buy twice as many mats as your most optimistic hopes, and if you're lucky sell back 1/4th of them after success. If not, repeat.

Damn, was hoping there was a bit more definitive in odds like mob drop rates. Thanks for everyone's input, still all very helpful ^^

As others have said, it's pretty unpredictable, but that said I think 12 Demons, 24 Kindreds, 24 Beastmen, and 8 each of the rest of the mats is pretty reasonable for a single Su5. You might end up with 2, you might end up with 0, but that gives you a pretty good shot at getting something.

You will definitely have a lot of random odds-and-ends after doing the synths which will be annoying to sell.

it's like asking how many savory shanks do i need for d.ring.
the answer: as many as it takes. average doesn't matter when you get an unlucky streak. especially if you are just requesting it made by a crafter instead of crafting dozens/hundreds of it over a year.
Last two crafting sessions were absolutely terrible for me. bought enough mats to make 6 avg, made 1...

think someone mentioned already but you'll burn through roughly twice as many medal-bought items (moldy x, relic adaman, ratnaraj, job crystals) as the other materials

In my experience, I'd buy 1 stack worth of mats to make 1 hq2 when it came to jse necks or su5. Sometimes I'd lose it all, sometimes I'd make multiples. Sometimes, unless you want a signed one, it's cheaper to buy from the AH.