Coronavirus Death Toll Estimation USA

Just to touch on that one. If a person can make informed consent while dying and there's a chance to use them (let them) speed up the trial I'm for that too.

But I also can't ignore the very certain reality of it being one step from forging consent and using literal guinea pigs. This is why we can't have nice things and why rules and laws HAVE to be overbearing.

But my capitalism bro. I can't pay American workers and still make as much money as I would using child slaves.

ohohohohoho *** yea.

When trump told critical manufacturing to get out of china last year it was music to my ears. The idea that we manufacture quite literally the most critical components to our countries survival ONLY IN CHINA, is asinine. i dont care how you feel about the orange man, he was right about china every step of the way when it comes to them being a danger to the world.

ORRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRR, and humor me here.... its valuable data regardless.

they give us an idea of where we are, vs where they are at differing points in the infection cycle. Italy is about two to three weeks ahead of us in this infection cycle. maybe four weeks.

objectively speaking, italy has Ten times the mortality rate compared to the USA today. if we are doing a good job, that gap will remain about the over the next four weeks.

If we are doing a bad job, that gap will shrink, and eventually become a negative over the next two to four weeks, indicating that we are doing WORSE than italy.


Moresoever it shows places like SOKO, INDIA, and China, who have been fighting the disease MUCH longer than italy has, would indicate that they are either lying, misrepresenting, or doing a job so incredibly good that the whole rest of the world is a gaggle of bumbling retards by comparison.

I'm going with 269K.
(nice)

its in line with the extreme high end of my projection rates.... but i dont usually do projections of this nature (usually just general business forecasting lol) so i could be off. High end is about 150-200k, middle of the road is about 100-150k, low end is 50-100k

Hey, shoot for the moon.
Not going to do a "I told you so" dance if its near or over, because that's just deeply saddening that it could be a possibility.
On the bright side, I'll definitely cheer if the death toll reaches nowhere near that.

i firmly believe, that given the circumstances, we as a country, are doing fantastic comparatively to what we could be doing. This is probably the most infectious disease we've seen in over a hundred years, and honestly for us to have coped as well as we have with it? thats pretty impressive. Something nobody alive has seen- and we're taking well enough for everything to not just be reduced to fire and brimstone.

Japan, is the only nation really comparable to italy, and its been holdin in there pretty well all things considered. they actually are comparable on median age, and is on the complete opposite end of the spectrum. i've not come across any news of failings by japan, or issues with their testings/protocols.

Heres how japan stacks up:

1. Reported infection Rate (PC) - 0.0023%
2. Reported infection rank: 46
3. Reported Death toll (PC) - 0.00005%
4. Reported Death Rank: 43
5. Testing Rate (PC) - 0.031%
6. Testing Rank: 41th

Japan's population is about double italy, with a FAR better median health, but about the same elderly population.

It may be the weeb in me, but i dont think japan is doing a bad job from everything ive seen and heard. they basically closed down their country right around the same time trump implemented the travel ban- which was likely why they have done so well.

it could be japan is under testing- but the deaths and cases just dont support it. they went isolationist super fast if im not mis-remembering.


I disagree completely and totally- examining the performance, and factors that went into that performance, is absolutely PARAMOUNT to building an adequate response plan for the future. However, I could not agree more, that we need to talk about what we need to do in the future to be prepared now that we understand the risks pandemics present to a globalized world and economy.


oh dont go getting political on me. we were being productive. now i have no choice but to get political and disagree..

In the usa, trump took action on china right away and was mocked and ridiculed for it- BY THE LEFT. He even wanted to look at closing ALL of our borders, and was mocked and ridiculed for it - BY THE LEFT. The LEFT also downplayed this virus for WEEKS after trump started to get serious over this virus. i can find you a literal ocean of articles criticizing trump for fearmongering. A republican politician said that we cant omit the possiblity that this was due to bad science - that it wasnt a bio weapon gone wrong, or even intentional - that some scientists probably got into something they shouldnt have, and didnt follow the proper protocols, and thats how this happened. He was ridiculed for MONTHS as a conspiracy theorist for saying this. Now evidence is everywhere that this is exactly what had happened - that someone was exposed because the proper protocols were not in place. E.G. the lab accused is a BSL4 lab. Their protocols are of a BSL2 lab.

That however does not excuse the right, trump excluded, from downplaying this at every turn up until we hit critical mass. Trump, gets a pass. hes the POTUS, and has a distinct responsibility to ensure people feel as safe as possible in any given situation. he did down play it, but i argue that ANY president in his position would have.

Trump didn't "get serious" until March, and the left certainly was not "downplaying" the virus in February or March. In fact, his constant lies about how he "took heat for closing the borders" were factchecked and ruled false. No one was hitting him for closing off China.

Also, Trump's indifference directly led to Republican governors being able to delay taking action as long as possible. Specifically, the governors of Florida, Texas, and Georgia didn't issue shelter in place until April. When asked what took so long, the governor of Florida literally said because Trump was telling me it would be over soon. There still isn't a nationwide shelter in place order, despite Dr. Fauci pushing for one, bewildered while all 50 states haven't locked it down. We still have 8 GOP states holding out, despite the virus infecting all 50 states. So no, Trump doesn't "get a pass."

It ain't got ***to do with politics.

NYC Detroit MardiGras LA Chicago

Biggest Cities/Airports

Who fact checked this? i literally watched them do this in real time..... i read through swarms of articles calling him a racist, and a bigot for doing this. he was absolutely hammered all over the place for doing this.


as for the national shelter in place?

Fed V States issue old as the country itself - hell we fought a war over that very issue. The fed is very limited in what it can and cannot do to a state. Hence why sanctuary cities/states exist, and the unbanning of pot in several states has happened. The truth of the matter is- that the fed is the last line of defense in this kind of a crisis. The fed largely only exists in theory, as a unifying body, a defender of the constitution, and security of our borders against incursion. beyond that the federal governments power isnt as crazy as you think. If the states themselves dont to choose to shut down. there is no authority on which the federal government could enforce said shelter in place order, and the would not have the means to enforce it within every state. E.G if texas said eat the fattest part of my ***, theres nothing the fed could or would do about it. at best they'd wall of the state with a blockade, and thats it.

i think he makes a fair point in one regard however. Its regularly parroted that repulbicans are downplaying and treating this with kid gloves. you;d think if the inverse were true- the cities would not be hit nearly as hard as they were.

however i do agree, that these places were always bound to be high due to density. but when i see ny state officials saying 'nah go out and party guys, go enjoy the chinese festivities' (yes this happened), after trump said lock it down, Then i cant help but think its not unrelated.

yes; this infact did happen after trump initiated the travel bans to/from china. NY State officials specifically scoffed at him, and encouraged people to go out an party. On live television.

People are going to be stupid regardless. NYC is still doing funerals parties weddings.

Trump absolutely made it worse. But it would still be happening anyway. Stupid is an unstoppable force.

This was funny. Thanks for reminding us how little you know about this country.

Trump was saying the same thing at the time. He didn't say "lock it down" in any part of Jan. or Feb. Remember, he was still doing his campaign rallies in February. Thousands of people. You have the clips of him saying "this is their new hoax" at a campaign rally. Pretty sure he was still holding his rallies into March, I know he said he wanted to continue to them as late as March.

For the record Florida is controlled by the republicans and Florida power and light.

Without going into whether Trump specifically did what he should've or not, and just speaking generalities:

Ensuring people are safe often requires ensuring they feel safe. When people feel unsafe, it exacerbates supply hoarding and all sorts of other behavior that is problematic when applied across a populace. So, there is often tactical benefit to making people feel safe.

Don't be naive enough to think anything he did or said was for any reason other than keeping his approval rating as high as possible and the stock market falsely inflated.

All of January and February, he was pointing at the scoreboard while people were dying. As long as fewer people died than H1N1, he was winning. That was his only mentality.