BCNM/KSNM

So Im writing to you guys today to figure out the truth behind drop rates in these god aweful events.
I see people continously going on about how moon phases effect drop rates, going in at the right time, having the right job with the proper stats open the crate. I'm sure everyone has heard some wild things about what effects the drop rate, surely enough people do it to make themselves feel better about it.

But get this,

The other day, was doing a royal jelly run for shits and giggles, and the second we go into the zone, that big *** jelly is already spawned?
So we get facefucked cause I was all "lol'ing" too much.
I call a GM explain the situation, trying to get my seals back, and this is his explanation as to why he can't give them back.

"Unfortunately GMs are not able to refund Beastmen or Kindred Seals, this is because the drop rates on items within the burning circle zones, is affected by the amount of seals that drop. The moment a number of seals are handed in for an orb, the drops are already set into that orb. This helps to prevent the over population of the items everyone are hoping to see drop. That being said, at no point can either types of seals be refunded, it would completely throw off the system that is set up"

What do you guys think?
Anyone else have experience like this?

Sounds like *** to me.

It's long be thought, and shown by "GM Conversation", that your drops are pre-determined within your orb when you aquire it. Win the fight, and whatever is inscribed in your orb is processed into treasure pool, and if you think about it, why is there the 5-10second pause when you open the chest while it pools the treasure!

I believe what the GM stated in the OP.

It's a weird theory but kinda cool at the same time, and knowing SE I could believe that it's true.

Wouldn't this screw up some (recorded) drop percentages by a bit then, since people who lose a BCNM won't find out what was in their orb?

Not really, I suppose after all the testing and percentages worked out for drop rates are accurate and what the system/server has set, thus still reflective.

Your comment about losing a BCNM is infact probably very true, its never mentioned how often people lose and orb, and this would infact skew the drop rates slightly, I can't see by alot, but surely 1-3%

I.e. UO - PCA drop rate is probably reflective, and the "system" assigned drops to orbs would only add one for every 20 purchased for example.

Not really sure without SE clarification, which we'll never get.

If PCA is loaded 1 in 20 times, and that one time orb is lost due to failure, than next orb would load within the next 20 purchased, that would skew exponentially, but alas, thats two runs looked at, the more runs that are completed, the higher the figure would grow.

And its highly or probable, that for example and orb is loaded on the 19th purchase, than again for example at 21 if you count the current drop rate.

How certain are we that once and orb has been loaded its not reset, for example, loaded on 19, than 21, does the system reset and start again, or will the next orb be available on 40-60 purchased.

(Above worked on a 5% drop rate)