95% chance baetyl droprate is between 7% and 18.2% based on sample.
1 - .07 = 93% chance of it not dropping
93 ^ 144 = .000028943069786482730252495424220653
Chance of going 0/144 on a 7% droprate is 1/34,550.
Chance of going 0/144 on a 12.6% droprate(which the sample indicates) is 1/264,456,167.
Chance of going 0/144 on a 18.2% droprate(which is equally likely as an error when compared to 7%) is 1/3,660,363,965,898.
It's not hard to see why the statistics are more trustworthy than posts, people have a tendency to exaggerate their misfortune. Even with the margin of error being so wide in this case, Eiryl is claiming to be over 2 standard deviations from the mean and others are claiming to be over 1 standard deviation.
Let's not forget this is using the independant of TH value that isn't accounting for when it already is in possession of the person killing warder. It only goes up from there.
Have you ever been wrong... ? I mean why do other people even bother to post when you have all the answers.
I know all you're doing is baiting, but it's not my fault the majority of ffxiah didn't pay attention in high school.