Warder Of Love-Baetyl Pendant Drop Rate

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Warder of Love-Baetyl Pendant drop rate
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 Sylph.Jtmoney
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By Sylph.Jtmoney 2018-02-03 15:50:28
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I’ve been trying to obtain this pendant for over 2 weeks now but I’m 0/52 as of right now. I’ve seen plenty of jackets and torques but this pendant doesn’t seem to exist. Anyone else having any issue an getting this drop?
 Asura.Eiryl
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By Asura.Eiryl 2018-02-03 16:15:27
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The item you want from the warder is the one that wont drop.

Kill it for someone else for a torque, youll get a pendant.

I've been trying for the baetyl for... an entire year off and on.
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 Asura.Inuyushi
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By Asura.Inuyushi 2018-02-03 16:22:27
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When I was farming my torque I tossed at least 5 of those. It's just bad luck. It's just random. Keep trying until you get it.
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By Lariae 2018-02-03 16:35:40
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Really? I got two in the course of two days.. I'm sorry man =(
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By fonewear 2018-02-03 16:37:13
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I'm one for one on the drop...probably because I didn't want it.
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 Bahamut.Agerine
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By Bahamut.Agerine 2018-02-03 16:38:04
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Asura.Eiryl said: »
The item you want from the warder is the one that one drop.

Kill it for someone else for a torque, youll get a pendant.

I've been trying for the baetyl for... an entire year off and on.

I live by this. I hate goin after a single item cause I know it’s probably not going to drop. Team up with someone else who wants a different item and I tend to see better results.

I spent a solid week in sky makin incanters torque. Just ***luck sometimes.
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 Sylph.Darkside
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By Sylph.Darkside 2018-02-03 17:47:32
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I can’t even get the m’fer to pop.
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By Felgarr 2018-02-03 17:56:56
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I went 2/30, sorry man....Only reason I fought him 30 times to get the torque to drop :(
 Leviathan.Comeatmebro
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By Leviathan.Comeatmebro 2018-02-03 18:03:01
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http://ffxidb.com/zones/289/warder-of-love

/thread
 Asura.Geriond
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By Asura.Geriond 2018-02-03 18:14:05
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Not many kills recorded, so big uncertainty there.
 Leviathan.Comeatmebro
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By Leviathan.Comeatmebro 2018-02-03 19:20:04
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Small, but they are unbiased and accurate records. This is a bunch of people who are throwing hard #s on something they almost certainly didn't record.
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 Fenrir.Tarowyn
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By Fenrir.Tarowyn 2018-02-03 20:49:15
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Considering all the drops are R/E, the accuracy is somewhat questionable.
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 Asura.Eiryl
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By Asura.Eiryl 2018-02-03 20:59:34
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Db is only good for farmable drops. The only thing I use it for is like which mob has the best drop rate for silk thread etc.

R/E items have at least 2 issues. If solo it cannot drop if you have it. skewing rate. and if you're in a group of 6 all 6 record a drop, again skewing the rate.

In the end you could say it's still within variance. Still not something you should ever really rely on for anything that isnt a common drop.

Also, I have personally killed Love more times than are recorded, just by myself, and don't have the pendant, so my 0% drop rate is more reliable.
 Lakshmi.Buukki
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By Lakshmi.Buukki 2018-02-03 22:35:10
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Sylph.Darkside said: »
I can’t even get the m’fer to pop.

First world problems in this thread. I second this comment.
 Leviathan.Comeatmebro
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By Leviathan.Comeatmebro 2018-02-03 22:44:48
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Asura.Eiryl said: »
and if you're in a group of 6 all 6 record a drop, again skewing the rate.
This isn't true, they check server/zone index. If 2 drops are recorded off the same mob in the same timeframe they'll be discarded. Pretty sure they correctly account for instances too.

It is true that it can't drop if you own it and it's rare/ex, but it's also possible they account for that. I don't think they do, though.

Asura.Eiryl said: »
Also, I have personally killed Love more times than are recorded, just by myself, and don't have the pendant, so my 0% drop rate is more reliable.
So you're claiming 0/144+ on a drop that's roughly 1/6? This is why you can't trust players' reports at all.
 Asura.Eiryl
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By Asura.Eiryl 2018-02-03 23:08:59
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I just happen to be extremely unlucky. It's 100% accurate.

Random is random. (though ffxi random is about the furthest *** thing you can possibly get from actually being random...)

Drop rate isn't player dependent. It could drop every single pop the time after I kill it and still maintain the posted %

I could alternate kills with someone else 1000 times, and never get the drop, while they got it 100% of the time.

If you aren't the person to kill it 8 times in a row, drop rate is meaningless.

I mean look at http://www.ffxidb.com/zones/291/albumen you -seriously- think only 16 of them have been killed ever? I've been bitching about ffxidb being inaccurate for quite a while.

Quote:
As of the 19 February 2015 update.
 Odin.Drakenv
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By Odin.Drakenv 2018-02-04 05:14:32
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:( I’ve gotten three of these from ANV I thought it was common drop in escha don’t give up!
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By Pantafernando 2018-02-04 06:08:52
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I sugest you to 1) get as much rare enemy vorseal you can, 2) bring a dedicated thf for th, 3) ask help and spend some time killing naga raja before the farming. There are blessing for th and for rare enemy and its not common people to spam naga raja, but i personally think its worth spending some few mins for that (dont even need much player or gear, just lots of selthus).
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By Pantafernando 2018-02-04 06:18:00
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Ah, who knows? do an /itemsearch "Baetyl Pendant" just to be safe. Sometimes gob toss you so many items you dont even notice.
 Asura.Geriond
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By Asura.Geriond 2018-02-04 10:01:24
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Asura.Eiryl said: »
If you aren't the person to kill it 8 times in a row, drop rate is meaningless.
That's not how statistics work.
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By fonewear 2018-02-04 10:05:54
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Asura.Geriond said: »
Asura.Eiryl said: »
If you aren't the person to kill it 8 times in a row, drop rate is meaningless.
That's not how statistics work.

Please lecture us on statistics I need educated.
 Leviathan.Comeatmebro
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By Leviathan.Comeatmebro 2018-02-04 10:07:11
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Asura.Eiryl said: »
I mean look at http://www.ffxidb.com/zones/291/albumen you -seriously- think only 16 of them have been killed ever? I've been bitching about ffxidb being inaccurate for quite a while.
Data collection is currently down. That's why the numbers are low. However, the data that's already been collected has been done without bias or ***.

Just because you don't understand statistics doesn't mean others around you don't. Using the probability of occurance and total number of samples, you can get a pretty good idea of the real range for the droprate. This is why it's so easy to assume people's droprates are faked: they're completely out of line with statistics, to the point these people would have had more chance of winning the lottery in some cases.
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By fonewear 2018-02-04 10:08:40
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Leviathan.Comeatmebro said: »
Asura.Eiryl said: »
I mean look at http://www.ffxidb.com/zones/291/albumen you -seriously- think only 16 of them have been killed ever? I've been bitching about ffxidb being inaccurate for quite a while.
Data collection is currently down. That's why the numbers are low. However, the data that's already been collected has been done without bias or ***.

Just because you don't understand statistics doesn't mean others around you don't. If you calculate margin of error using occurance% and number of kills, you can get a pretty good idea of the real range for the droprate. This is why it's so easy to assume people's droprates are faked: they're completely out of line with statistics, to the point these people would have had more chance of winning the lottery in some cases.

Have you ever been wrong... ? I mean why do other people even bother to post when you have all the answers.
 Leviathan.Comeatmebro
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By Leviathan.Comeatmebro 2018-02-04 10:16:22
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95% chance baetyl droprate is between 7% and 18.2% based on sample.

1 - .07 = 93% chance of it not dropping

93 ^ 144 = .000028943069786482730252495424220653

Chance of going 0/144 on a 7% droprate is 1/34,550.

Chance of going 0/144 on a 12.6% droprate(which the sample indicates) is 1/264,456,167.

Chance of going 0/144 on a 18.2% droprate(which is equally likely as an error when compared to 7%) is 1/3,660,363,965,898.

It's not hard to see why the statistics are more trustworthy than posts, people have a tendency to exaggerate their misfortune. Even with the margin of error being so wide in this case, Eiryl is claiming to be over 2 standard deviations from the mean and others are claiming to be over 1 standard deviation.

Let's not forget this is using the independant of TH value that isn't accounting for when it already is in possession of the person killing warder. It only goes up from there.

fonewear said: »
Have you ever been wrong... ? I mean why do other people even bother to post when you have all the answers.
I know all you're doing is baiting, but it's not my fault the majority of ffxiah didn't pay attention in high school.
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By fonewear 2018-02-04 10:18:34
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Leviathan.Comeatmebro said: »
95% chance baetyl droprate is between 7% and 18.2% based on sample.

1 - .07 = 93% chance of it not dropping

93 ^ 144 = .000028943069786482730252495424220653

Chance of going 0/144 on a 7% droprate is 1/34,550.

Chance of going 0/144 on a 12.6% droprate(which the sample indicates) is 1/264,456,167.

Chance of going 0/144 on a 18.2% droprate(which is equally likely as an error when compared to 7%) is 1/3,660,363,965,898.

It's not hard to see why the statistics are more trustworthy than posts, people have a tendency to exaggerate their misfortune. Even with the margin of error being so wide in this case, Eiryl is claiming to be over 2 standard deviations from the mean and others are claiming to be over 1 standard deviation.

Let's not forget this is using the independant of TH value that isn't accounting for when it already is in possession of the person killing warder. It only goes up from there.

You forgot to carry the one.
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By fonewear 2018-02-04 10:20:58
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We need more lectures on statistics cause that will surely increase the OP drop rate.
 Asura.Geriond
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By Asura.Geriond 2018-02-04 10:21:20
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fonewear said: »
Asura.Geriond said: »
Asura.Eiryl said: »
If you aren't the person to kill it 8 times in a row, drop rate is meaningless.
That's not how statistics work.

Please lecture us on statistics I need educated.
Go educate yourself, then.
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By fonewear 2018-02-04 10:21:58
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Asura.Geriond said: »
fonewear said: »
Asura.Geriond said: »
Asura.Eiryl said: »
If you aren't the person to kill it 8 times in a row, drop rate is meaningless.
That's not how statistics work.

Please lecture us on statistics I need educated.
Go educate yourself, then.

Wow such a comeback did you think of that yourself. Or did you use a statistical analysis to come up with it.
 Asura.Geriond
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By Asura.Geriond 2018-02-04 10:24:35
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fonewear said: »
Asura.Geriond said: »
fonewear said: »
Asura.Geriond said: »
Asura.Eiryl said: »
If you aren't the person to kill it 8 times in a row, drop rate is meaningless.
That's not how statistics work.

Please lecture us on statistics I need educated.
Go educate yourself, then.

Wow such a comeback did you think of that yourself. Or did you use a statistical analysis to come up with it.
It's not a "comeback", it's actual REAL advice for someone who apparently doesn't seem to understand something as basic as this.
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By fonewear 2018-02-04 10:26:25
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Asura.Geriond said: »
fonewear said: »
Asura.Geriond said: »
fonewear said: »
Asura.Geriond said: »
Asura.Eiryl said: »
If you aren't the person to kill it 8 times in a row, drop rate is meaningless.
That's not how statistics work.

Please lecture us on statistics I need educated.
Go educate yourself, then.

Wow such a comeback did you think of that yourself. Or did you use a statistical analysis to come up with it.
It's not a "comeback", it's actual REAL advice for someone who doesn't understand something as basic as this.

Sounds like you have some unresolved anger issues ...I'd get that checked out.
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