Random Politics & Religion #10

Oh sure, pretty much every poll has Trump at 0-3% among blacks. Fivethirtyeight has a summary of 4 polls released recently, ABC/Fox News/NBC/Marist. All have him at 1 or 2%. Quinnipiac had him at 1% at the end of June. He has no support in the black community, this latest gaffe filled outreach of his didn't fool anyone.

Like him or not, you must admit it took balls the size of grapefruits for Trump to go, live around the World, and speak in that venue, on that stage in Mexico. And you know he did very well.

He was booed the whole time, and embarrassed the US with talks of a wall, so no, he did not do "very well." His foreign policy is an embarrassment.

The Associated Press in Politico

You would prefer Fox?

US high court refuses to reinstate North Carolina voter ID
Associated Press

Same article quoted from a right wing source. Do you feel better now?

Bloomberg, USA TODAY, News & Observer (local so not a rip and read) There are others....

It was excellent. You hate him and are incapable of being honest with yourself in matters pertaining to him.

It's already over Vic. Just accept him as your next President.

With people, like you, who are totally committed to him anyway. I really doubt he scored any points with the hold-my-nose-and-vote-against-Clinton republicans, let alone with Hispanics.

Lol, sure kid. What happened to your President Rubio predictions? Seems like you just bounce from one idiot to another.

Different time. Different game. Hillary can't win this. It's not too late to get Biden in instead.

I'm already working on my move to Canada.

Hillary is doing just fine, dominating the electoral college, dominating every demographic except for white men, but doing better than Obama did, gearing up for the debates which is where she will absolutely be favored. But keep fantasizing Aman, for our amusement.

Looked at the four polls from the Fivethirtyeight. Two of them didn't parse out black preference in the links provided, so I have no idea where they obtained the numbers. The other two were Fox News (please tell me you trust their information) and Marist, which was such an outlier in early August that it had Hillary at +15, more than five points above any other poll. And which pollster was the only one to give Hillary a double digit lead in the second half of the month? Oh look, it's Quinnipiac.

Points for actually giving links, though.

On a side note, Hillary is under-performing in the black vote too according to your sources, so that's something to keep in mind.

91% is underperforming? Ok, I think she will take that. You shouldn't be surprised by these numbers, Bush only won 11% of the black vote in '04, McCain 4% in '08, Romney 6% in '12. Trump is running one of the worst campaigns ever, I would expect 0-3%. Completely serious. Roper has all the exit polls.

"Dominating". Right. Is that why her numbers are dropping in polling averages in nearly every battleground state? Does someone who is "dominating" struggle in Florida, Ohio, Missouri, Wisconsin, Arizona, Iowa, Nevada, North Carolina, etc.?

The fact that she is highly competitive in Missouri, Arizona, Georgia, and Utah should be very troubling to you. Those are very red states. So yes, it does suggest that she is on the verge of running away with it. The electoral college wins the election, and I'm not seeing a path to 270 for Trump.

Quoting random crap again? Your own source has her at 83%, 85%, 86%, and 89% in four polls. When is the last time that a Democrat running for president done worse than 93%? According to Gallup, not since 2000 at least.

Uhh, she's not highly competitive in Utah. It's slightly less red than usual, but that's it. The only reason it's less red than before is Utahns don't like Trump, but if you remember in her matchup with Sanders she wasn't exactly liked here either. She's still double digits down in most polls. And keep in mind, she may be "competitive" in the other states that you mentioned, but she's dropping in nearly all states that are in play. If you think Utah is in play, then so are Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, and Michigan, because those are at single digits and Trending in Trump's direction this month.

Even if you think she is underperforming, I'm sure she would take trump being at 0-3%. And there is nothing out there that shows him doing better than that. I think its a safe bet he is going to do worse than Romney did with the black vote.

I don't see any polls that show Pennsylvania trending towards Trump, and the Michigan state poll has her with an 11 point lead, not trending towards Trump. They might be a little tighter than that but they aren't trending Trump, her numbers aren't going down there.

I don't think she can win Utah, but I do think she could win Arizona. Not that she needs to. Losing Pennsylvania is pretty much a dealbreaker for Trump, especially with purple Virginia being off the table. Ohio, Florida, North Carolina will be too close to call right up through election day.

Pennsylvania latest: Emerson +3 Clinton, Monmouth +8 Clinton, down from the four polls that had her at +10/11 since the beginning of the month.

Michigan latest: Emerson +5 Clinton, Suffolk +7 Clinton, down from the three polls that had her at +9/10 since the beginning of the month. I don't know where you got the 11 point lead from.

You seem to really be relying on that Emerson poll, the only Trump friendly poll out there.

I'm pointing out what's there, and I included it with Monmouth and Suffolk if you don't like it.

Poll numbers with two months to go are interesting, but not particularly useful.

Vic is right, though: Trump has to make up ground in PA or nothing else even matters. He almost certainly can't win it, though; even the most optimistic polls put him behind.

Poll numbers shift because of undecideds, and this election just doesn't have as many of those as usual.

I think we have a lot more "undecideds", they're just each so pissed they're going 3rd/4th party pretty solidly. It's really interesting to see polls done just Trump vs Clinton and with Trump vs Clinton vs Johnson vs Stein and seeing the same margins between Trump and Clinton.

He certainly has work to do, and Clinton has the much clearer path to victory. But Vic was treating this like some kind of landslide when it's not. She's down across the board, still can't shake scandals, and is facing multiple threats for an October surprise. Meanwhile, Trump has been mostly gaffe-free for the longest streak in forever and is showing serious restraint. Clinton hasn't won this, and anyone without a head in the sand can see that.

Yeah, gaffe free for 3 days. Unless you count today.

Well, if you classify gaffes as "things Trump says that I don't like", then okay. There hasn't been anything on the scale of weeks past.

Really? You don't classify his pathetic tweet about the murder of Dwayne Wade's cousin to be on the same level of all of his other outrageous comments? Well, I guess that would make sense if you believe it to be a new low for him.

Well, seeing as how it was glossed over in the media and I heard about it in passing a grand total of one time, I'd say you're just conditioned to react in faux outrage to everything he says.

Sad reminder of the consequences of the oft-complex nature of domestic violence and psychological abuse.

Frustrating ongoing story with tragic end. Posting here because...I don't know. Because I feel like too many people are dismissive of domestic violence and how prevalent of a problem it is. Nationwide news now, apparently, so figured I'd pass it on.

She was a friend of friends. Never knew her personally, but they're pretty upset.

Meh. Just one of those things to pass along hoping it does good for someone else somewhere, I guess.